NEAR hackathon · Investment Thesis ·

NEAR's long-term case rests on Intents.

The verdict in three findings

Real business, small yield, narrow moat

Part A

What Intents revenue is worth to a NEAR holder

Monthly volume

Monthly fees

Monthly revenue captured by NEAR

How far Intents has to grow

Volume multiple needed at today's take. The scale is logarithmic.

Buyback against new supply

Scenario grid: buyback yield on NEAR's market value

Each cell is the yield if annual volume and NEAR's take were as labelled. Only the outlined cell is measured; every other cell is an assumption, not a forecast.

Query behind it
python -m moatmap.model

run rate      = trailing 90 days of DefiLlama volume, fees and revenue x 365 / 90
                GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyFees | dailyRevenue
                GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/dexs/near-intents
market value  = circulating supply (sql/circulating_supply.sql on NEAR BigQuery) x NEAR price (1Click token list)
buyback yield = annual revenue / market value      (since 2026-02-23 NEAR's captured Intents revenue buys back NEAR)
net issuance  = change in total supply over the BigQuery window, annualised
grid cell     = run-rate volume x volume multiple x take (bps of volume NEAR keeps) / market value
Part B · The Moat Map

Will it last? Counting the rivals on every route

Revenue earns a long-term multiple only if rivals cannot take it. We counted how many of five rival bridges (Across, Relay, deBridge, Chainflip, THORChain) can serve each route and tested two claims whose thresholds were fixed before the data was pulled.

Where NEAR Intents has company

Query behind it
python -m moatmap.coverage

NEAR Intents chains : GET https://1click.chaindefuser.com/v0/tokens  (distinct `blockchain`)
Across              : GET https://app.across.to/api/available-routes  +  /api/swap/chains
Relay               : GET https://api.relay.link/chains
deBridge            : GET https://dln.debridge.finance/v1.0/supported-chains-info
Chainflip           : JSON-RPC cf_supported_assets on https://mainnet-rpc.chainflip.io
THORChain           : GET .../thorchain/pools  (status Available)

A filled cell = the rival's own live API lists that chain. Output: data/processed/coverage.csv

Fee revenue by number of rivals on the route

The same split, measured four ways

The line marks the 50% the claim needed.

Query behind it
python -m moatmap.explorer   then   python -m moatmap.analyze

GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions?statuses=SUCCESS&numberOfTransactions=1000&...
    (Authorization: Bearer $NEAR_INTENTS_JWT, paged over the whole window)
route = chain(originAsset) > chain(destinationAsset); volume = amountInUsd
fee per recipient = amountInUsd x appFees[].fee / 10,000 ; NEAR's own = recipient is one of NEAR's three revenue wallets
Routes are grouped by the number of rivals listing both chains (coverage.csv); same-chain swaps are excluded.

The routes that carry the money

Thin route (at most 2 rivals)Contested route (3 or more rivals)
Table view

The thin-route share, week by week

How much of it is Zcash

Part B · Pricing

Does NEAR charge more where it is alone?

What a swap costs: NEAR Intents against the cheapest rival

NEAR IntentsCheapest rival that quoted
Table view
Query behind it
python -m moatmap.quotes

For each route x size x provider: request a live quote for the same asset pair and input amount.
cost_bps = (amount_in_usd - amount_out_usd) / amount_in_usd x 10,000
Both sides are priced with one 1Click price snapshot taken in the same run, for every provider, so the
figure is the all-in cost (spread + protocol fee + destination gas), not each provider's own estimate.
Failed quotes are kept with ok=0 and never filled in. Each point is the median across snapshots.

Thin-route cost relative to crowded-route cost

Like for like: same token type, same swap size. The line marks the 1.5× the claim needed.

Query behind it
python -m moatmap.analyze   (function pricing_test)

"Thin" = routes where at most 2 rivals list both chains; "crowded" = 4 or 5.
Ratio = median NEAR cost on thin routes / median NEAR cost on crowded routes, per swap size,
computed separately for same-token routes (USDC>USDC, ETH>ETH) and different-token routes (BTC>ETH),
because NEAR's documented fee differs between them and mixing the two would manufacture a premium.

Fees actually charged on executed swaps

Part B · The finding

Why the claims did not hold

Claim 1 · revenue from thin routes

Claim 2 · a price premium on thin routes

Network context · NEAR BigQuery

Heavy use, few hands

Most-called contracts on NEAR

Daily activity

Every query filters on block_date; the newest, still-filling day is not plotted.

Queries behind it
Read before relying on it

What these charts cannot tell you